2026 Refinance Opportunity Index

Which U.S. markets hold the most refinance opportunity right now? We scored 963 city markets across all 50 states using U.S. Census Bureau housing data — the size of each market's mortgaged-homeowner base, how cost-burdened those owners are, home values, and mortgage prevalence — into a single 0–100 opportunity score.

  • 963 ranked city markets
  • 50 states scored
  • 14,911,346 mortgaged homes tracked
  • ACS 5-year source data

Key findings

What the 2026 index shows

No. 1 state

California, score 89.5

Nine of the top 15 city markets are Californian — 1,358,353 mortgaged owner-occupied homes, high values, and elevated cost burdens.

No. 1 city

Los Angeles, score 94.9

362,321 mortgaged homes and a 37.8% owner cost-burden rate — the largest concentration of payment-motivated homeowners in the country.

The spread

89.5 to 21.7

State scores range from California's 89.5 down to West Virginia's 21.7 — opportunity is heavily concentrated in high-cost coastal and mountain markets.

City rankings

Top 25 refinance city markets, 2026

Score is a weighted composite of percentile ranks: mortgaged-homeowner base (35%), owner cost burden (25%), median home value (20%), mortgage prevalence (20%).

#MarketScoreMortgaged homesOwner cost burdenMedian home value
1Los Angeles, California94.9362,32137.8%$822,600
2Oakland, California92.751,78929.2%$883,800
3Long Beach, California92.449,72730.8%$709,700
4San Diego, California92.3172,32328.8%$783,300
5Chula Vista, California92.036,39631.5%$647,100
6Anaheim, California89.834,55628.7%$713,600
7Moreno Valley, California89.727,21028.6%$421,400
8Riverside, California89.536,90527.3%$485,500
9San Jose, California89.2125,57624.8%$1,149,600
10Boston, Massachusetts88.568,29724.2%$684,900
11Aurora, Colorado88.367,16324.3%$409,700
12Jersey City, New Jersey87.824,57032.8%$500,100
13Denver, Colorado87.7119,10422.0%$540,400
14Portland, Oregon87.4109,55722.7%$523,100
15Sacramento, California86.969,41625.7%$450,500
16North Las Vegas, Nevada86.539,15525.6%$340,200
17Tacoma, Washington86.237,40924.1%$415,300
18San Francisco, California86.088,99328.5%$1,348,700
19Santa Ana, California85.723,66831.2%$624,000
20Lynn, Massachusetts84.413,26036.5%$442,800
21Virginia Beach, Virginia83.986,82922.1%$343,700
22Bakersfield, California83.854,65324.8%$320,600
23Brockton, Massachusetts83.715,50430.7%$364,700
24Norwalk, Connecticut83.513,91633.8%$491,800
25Stockton, California83.434,31428.2%$382,000

State rankings

All 50 states, ranked

State scores are the mortgage-weighted average of their tracked city markets.

#StateScoreTracked marketsMortgaged homes
1California89.5201,358,353
2Colorado79.320576,979
3Massachusetts76.220277,642
4Nevada76.119303,959
5Oregon75.920318,290
6New York75.520806,298
7Washington75.320431,633
8Virginia74.220405,374
9Florida71.820610,237
10Arizona71.420769,131
11Rhode Island69.615156,879
12Alaska69.21666,365
13Illinois69.020622,911
14New Jersey68.920150,190
15Maryland68.720215,292
16North Carolina67.420525,980
17Texas66.1201,194,737
18Connecticut65.020181,732
19Utah64.320242,920
20Georgia64.219247,202
21Hawaii63.32063,540
22Minnesota61.920353,676
23Idaho60.020172,126
24New Mexico59.620193,184
25Pennsylvania58.120335,340
26South Carolina57.820176,836
27Tennessee57.819291,875
28New Hampshire55.42091,264
29Louisiana52.720174,427
30Wisconsin52.320271,138
31Missouri52.220326,690
32Michigan52.120318,471
33Indiana51.920375,302
34Ohio51.720386,652
35Delaware51.11836,138
36Alabama50.820226,394
37Montana50.41968,682
38Kansas49.820243,739
39Oklahoma49.520282,167
40Nebraska48.518173,203
41Iowa45.920219,299
42Maine45.81959,362
43Vermont44.31421,382
44Wyoming44.21958,883
45South Dakota44.01875,472
46Arkansas43.820150,947
47Mississippi43.120105,413
48North Dakota42.31363,419
49Kentucky35.91985,591
50West Virginia21.71848,630

Metric leaders

Where each signal peaks

Largest mortgaged base
Highest owner cost burden
Highest median home value

Methodology

How the index is built

Every input comes from U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey (ACS) 5-year estimates for the 1,001 city markets BuyRefiLeads tracks. 963 markets had complete data for all four components and were ranked; each component is converted to a 0–100 percentile within that set, then combined:

  • Mortgaged-homeowner base (35%) — owner-occupied units with a mortgage: the raw pool of potential refinance borrowers.
  • Owner cost burden (25%) — share of owners spending 30%+ of income on housing: payment-reduction motive.
  • Median home value (20%) — equity depth and cash-out potential.
  • Mortgage prevalence (20%) — share of owner homes carrying a mortgage.

State scores are the mortgage-weighted average of their cities' scores. Scores are relative ranks, not predictions — they say nothing about interest rates, individual eligibility, or loan outcomes.

Use this data

Cite the index

Journalists, researchers, and mortgage industry analysts are welcome to cite the Refinance Opportunity Index with attribution to BuyRefiLeads and a link to this page (CC BY 4.0). For the underlying market-level data, methodology questions, or state-specific breakouts, contact us.

Lenders and brokers: this is the same market data our lead programs are targeted with — see how market tiers price or browse coverage by state.

FAQ

Refinance Opportunity Index FAQs

What is the Refinance Opportunity Index?

The Refinance Opportunity Index is BuyRefiLeads' composite ranking of U.S. city and state refinance markets, built from U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey (ACS) housing data across 963 ranked city markets in all 50 states. Each market is scored 0-100 on the size of its mortgaged-homeowner base, owner cost burden, median home value, and mortgage prevalence.

Which state ranks highest for refinance opportunity in 2026?

California leads the 2026 Refinance Opportunity Index with a weighted score of 89.5, driven by roughly 1,358,353 mortgaged owner-occupied homes across its 20 tracked markets, high home values, and elevated owner cost burdens.

Which city ranks highest for refinance opportunity in 2026?

Los Angeles, California ranks first with a score of 94.9 — about 362,321 mortgaged owner-occupied homes, a 37.8% owner cost-burden rate, and a median home value of $822,600.

What data does the index use?

All inputs come from U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey 5-year estimates: owner-occupied units with a mortgage, the share of owners spending 30% or more of income on housing, median home value, and the share of owner homes carrying a mortgage. Scores are relative percentile ranks within the tracked markets — not predictions of interest rates or individual outcomes.

Want leads from the top-ranked markets?

We run refinance funnels in every state on this list. Pick your licensed footprint and we'll map the opportunity against your capacity.

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